GUBERNA-webinar: Navigating Geopolitical Risks and Opportunities - Integrating Geopolitics into Corporate Decision-Making: Not a Threat, but a Strategic Compass

"Uncertainty is not an obstacle, but a catalyst for innovation." With this powerful statement, Sandra Gobert—moderator and Executive Director of GUBERNA—framed both the opening and the conclusion of the first session in GUBERNA’s new webinar series on geopolitical risk. Her message was clear: organisations that fail to develop a strategic response to geopolitical disruption today may well find themselves its victims tomorrow.

Understanding a Complex Geopolitical Landscape

Gobert was joined by three experts who each provided a distinct lens on today’s turbulent geopolitical context:
Tom Burin, former intelligence officer and currently strategist at Delta6;
Barney Jordaan, professor at Vlerick Business School and specialist in negotiation and conflict resolution; and
Koen De Leus, Chief Economist at BNP Paribas Fortis. “This is not a passing episode,” said Tom Burin. “We are witnessing a structural power shift—a contest between a declining hegemon, the United States, and an ascending power, China, flanked by Russia, Iran and North Korea.” Europe, he noted, remains largely in the sphere of US influence but continues to look away from the strategic implications of this transformation.

The Urgent Need to Recalibrate Strategy

Burin urged Belgian businesses in particular to internalise these dynamics. “Belgium is a trading nation. Over 85% of our GDP relies on exports. A single event in the Strait of Malacca could bring the ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge to a standstill.” To remain competitive and resilient, firms must be willing to let go of outdated assumptions and realign their strategies with today’s realities.