Future: a Tunnel or a Field?
Uncertainty has earned its place on the board agenda (1). Is there a way to address it effectively?
The best place to start is by accepting that uncertainty is here to stay and by developing effective ways to deal with it.
GUBERNA talked to Laurent Bontoux, Senior Foresight for Policy Expert at the European Commission Joint Research Centre. Laurent shared the evolution he has observed among EU policymakers who, after initial scepticism 10–15 years ago, now actively include tools for working with the future in their routines.
The key ingredients of this approach are openness to different stakeholders and perspectives, inclusion of their voices, and genuine participation. The latter ensures that all parties not only have their say but also take responsibility for co-creating the future, moving from reactive observation of emerging challenges to proactive engagement.
From Reacting to Shaping the Future
Why is foresight important? Through a better understanding of what is going on, by embracing different perspectives and through proactive engagement, leaders combat the fear they experience when facing the unknown. Fear is one of the most counterproductive reactions one can have when confronted with uncertainty. However, business leaders “get trapped in firefighting mode and often react to volatility by freezing up or reverting to gut instinct” too often (2). This is the least desirable scenario.
On the contrary, uncertainty is the time for clear and structured reflection on the company’s desired future under given circumstances. This exercise requires an honest understanding of these circumstances: what our strengths and weaknesses are, how the field is evolving, what could radically change the current status quo, which trends might accelerate unexpectedly, and which signals need to be monitored closely because of their potentially high impact.
A recent HBR article refers to a survey of executives from 500 organisations that actively explore multiple plausible futures and use these insights in their decision-making. The authors distinguish several types of inputs sought in these organisations:
Patterned unknowns that can be identified from historical data. Examples include trend reports and performance extrapolations.
Breakout unknowns that are often unpredictable and even hard to imagine. To capture these “unknown unknowns”, foresight leaders “build systems to identify, explore, and prepare for what can’t be predicted”.
In addition, different time frames ensure the relevance of the exercise: monitoring rapid shifts enables operational preparedness, while disciplined views of the longer-term future guide strategy.
The authors call for a positive mindset towards the future: companies that thrive under uncertainty seek opportunities rather than merely trying to avoid future risks. Another important lesson from the study is that informed decisions outperform gut-driven ones, so boards should look for broader sets of relevant indicators to monitor both short- and long-term change.
This active exploration of possible futures should never stop. Leaders must constantly monitor the horizon and adjust their vision, taking into account the signals that emerge. That explains why the golden rule of good governance — focus on strategy — becomes an imperative in periods of high uncertainty. It is of the utmost importance to stay at least one step ahead and prepare the business for potentially rapid and difficult-to-foresee shifts. Governance is first and foremost about anticipation.
Preparedness is one of the key challenges: it may seem obvious, yet it requires a radical revision of assumptions that are often taken for granted. Modern business and society are highly complex and interconnected systems. This complexity might obscure the opportunities that change can bring, pushing attention towards the risks instead. However, every change — the key driver of uncertainty — has two sides, and it is the task of business leaders to identify and embrace the opportunities while mitigating the unavoidable risks that accompany them.
The Power of a Shared Vision
We have dreams. We have fears. They guide our choices and shape our lives.
Despite a popular quote, reality is more than our mental picture of it. The world we live in keeps evolving; it shines and intrigues. It invites new undertakings. The way we look at the world around us, and what we choose to see, is a choice. This choice is often unconscious, guided by our previous experiences, our knowledge, our dreams, and our fears. We should aim to open the curtain between reality and our perceptions and take a proactive stance in shaping the future together.
Shared visions of the future have proven capable of mobilising humanity for unprecedented endeavours (3). Let us master the enormous power of forward-looking readiness!